State of the UK Fibre Market 2025: Growth, Slowdown and a Sector at a Crossroads

Iqbal Bedi
11 hours ago
4 min read

Gareth Wiliams, James Greer, Iqbal Bedi – December 2025

The UK fibre market has almost doubled in size in less than two years. Altnets have expanded from 8.6 million premises in early 2024 to around 16 million by the end of 2025, cementing themselves as a major force in the UK’s digital infrastructure landscape.

But 2025 also marks a turning point. Build rates are slowing, take-up performance across operators varies dramatically, and the long-anticipated altnet consolidation remains elusive. Meanwhile, Openreach and VMO2/nexfibre continue their large-scale rollouts, reshaping competitive dynamics.

The next phase will be defined less by build speed and more by commercial resilience, disciplined investment, take-up growth and smart public-private collaboration. Local authorities and operators that adopt structured investment models — such as our Digital Infrastructure Partnership (DIP) — will be best placed to attract funding and deliver sustainable, connected places.

A Market That Has Quietly Doubled in Under Two Years

When Intelligens Consulting published its 2024 update, UK altnets had passed just over 8.6 million premises. By late 2025, that figure has grown to around 16 million — an extraordinary increase delivered despite rising costs, slowing build rates and investor caution.

Altnets now account for around 57% of all UK FTTP premises passed.

These three anchor the independent fibre sector and drive the majority of new coverage.

Market Movements: Who Entered and Who Fell Out

Several operators have moved significantly up or down the rankings over the past year.

These changes reflect the stronger capital positions, faster build momentum and more decisive strategies of the rising operators.

Consolidation: Still Elusive

Predictions of a merger wave have persisted for years, yet consolidation remains:

“a bit like the promise of nuclear fusion power stations — always expected, never arriving.”

Outside a handful of transactions (e.g., CityFibre acquiring Connexin), the market remains fragmented. Most operators are still pursuing independent strategies, although several face growing financial pressure pursuing crowd funding solutions.

2026 may finally force decisions — but for now, the sector remains unconsolidated.

Build Rates: The Slowdown Is Now Structural

Although altnets continue to build, the speed has unmistakably slowed.

Average monthly build rate (top 10): ~19,300 premises in 2025 vs ~26,000 in 2024
CityFibre: ~83,333 premises/month in 2024, significantly lower in 2025
Netomnia: Occasional peak months above 80,000 premises, distorting the sector average
Openreach: Continues to build at one of the highest sustained rates in the UK, passing ~1.1 million premises per quarter and now covering well over 20 million in total
VMO2/nexfibre: Still expanding at pace, but have slowed announcements and re-evaluated commercial build plans

This confirms that the rapid expansion phase of 2022–23 has transitioned into a more selective and commercially disciplined deployment phase.

Market Share: A Stable Three-Pillar Fibre Market

Forecasts to 2027 show a stable and balanced fibre market:

In total, these networks are expected to pass just under 69 million premises by 2027 — broadly consistent with last year’s forecasts.

A genuine three-pillar market has now emerged.

Overbuild: Slightly Lower, Still Uneven

The overbuild index — measuring how many fibre networks pass each UK home — has eased slightly:

This means the average home will have 2.44 competing fibre networks by 2027.

However:

Urban areas commonly exceed 3–4 networks
Rural areas still experience 0–1
Towns sit between these extremes

The slight reduction reflects altnets becoming more selective and avoiding uneconomic overlap.

Investment: Rising, Not Falling

Despite market pressures, investment continues to rise.

A sizeable portion comes from Project Gigabit, but private capital remains the dominant force, signalling continued confidence in the long-term economic value of fibre.

Average cost per premise passed:

This increase is driven by deeper rural builds, inflation and more complex civil engineering.

Take-Up Rates: The Sector’s Greatest Vulnerability

New analysis from Eight Advisory shows a stark divergence in FTTP take-up across the market:

This wide spread — from 4% to nearly 50% — confirms what many in the sector already recognise:

Many altnets, particularly those below 15% take-up, must urgently rethink their branding, retail strategy and customer acquisition models.

As we wrote in UK Broadband’s Next Battle: Survival, Scale and the Rise (or Fall) of the Altnets, take-up — not build speed — is now the defining factor shaping the future of independent fibre networks.

2026 will reward operators and councils that focus on discipline, prioritisation and structured collaboration.

Conclusion: From Expansion to Rationalisation

The UK fibre sector is entering its most consequential phase. Premises passed have doubled. Investment is rising.

Market share is stabilising.

But survival will now depend on take-up, operational efficiency, and commercial discipline — not sheer rollout volume. The long-expected consolidation will likely begin with those whose take-up, funding or strategy lags the market’s direction of travel.

The winners will be those who build where it matters, invest where returns can be realised, and collaborate where value can be unlocked.

How Intelligens Consulting Can Help

The UK market is shifting from rapid expansion to targeted, commercially grounded fibre investment. Our Digital Infrastructure Partnership (DIP) model helps local authorities and operators identify the most attractive deployment areas, aggregate public-sector demand, de-risk investment and accelerate take-up. DIP aligns public priorities with commercial viability, enabling smarter, connected places supported by sustainable broadband infrastructure.